In a significant shift for the global smartphone industry, Apple’s entry into the foldable device category is already proving to be a transformative event. According to a newly released market analysis from the research firm TrendForce, the initial market reception to the iPhone Duo—Apple’s first foray into foldable hardware—has been robust. This early momentum suggests that Apple is well-positioned to command a substantial share of the foldable smartphone sector, with projections indicating the company could capture nearly 30% of the global market by 2027.
The findings, published this week, underscore a pivotal moment for the industry, as Apple’s entry appears to be doing more than just adding a new product to its lineup; it is fundamentally altering the competitive landscape for foldable devices.
Early Performance and Market Projections
The story of the iPhone Duo began to take shape shortly after its official announcement last month. Within just 24 hours of the unveiling, TrendForce released an initial assessment projecting that Apple would ship approximately 5 million units of its new foldable handset by the end of 2026. At that time, the firm estimated that this single device would grant Apple an immediate 24.8% share of the foldable segment, an impressive feat for a company entering a market that had previously been dominated almost exclusively by Android-based manufacturers like Samsung and Huawei.
The context surrounding this launch was particularly notable. TrendForce’s initial data indicated that the broader foldable smartphone market was experiencing a period of relative stagnation, with expectations for total market growth in 2026 hovering at a modest 0.5%. Perhaps more tellingly, the firm had forecasted a contraction for Android-based foldable brands, with their collective shipments projected to fall by more than 20% year-over-year. By entering the space during this cooling period, Apple effectively disrupted the narrative, providing a high-profile catalyst for consumer interest in the foldable form factor.
As the iPhone Duo has now been in the hands of consumers for nearly a week, the latest report from TrendForce serves to reinforce and refine these earlier predictions. The firm is now forecasting that by 2027, the global foldable smartphone market will reach 23.5 million shipments, representing a year-over-year growth of 16.3%. Within this expanded market, TrendForce projects that Apple will see its share climb further to 29.8%, cementing its position as a major player in the foldable ecosystem within just over a year of the product’s debut.
The Apple Advantage: Ecosystem and Integration
The rapid rise of the iPhone Duo is not merely a result of brand loyalty, but rather a reflection of Apple’s unique approach to hardware and software integration. TrendForce highlights that Apple’s primary competitive advantage lies in its comprehensive control over the entire user experience, from the custom-designed silicon powering the device to the operating system and the deeply integrated developer ecosystem.
Unlike many early entrants in the foldable market that struggled with software optimization and app scaling, Apple has leveraged its existing developer resources to ensure that the transition to a foldable form factor is as seamless as possible. By providing developers with the tools and guidelines necessary to make the most of the iPhone Duo’s unique display capabilities, Apple has ensured that the device feels like a natural extension of the iOS ecosystem rather than an experimental peripheral.
TrendForce notes that as both hardware reliability and application compatibility improve, the iPhone Duo is effectively expanding the practical utility of foldable displays. The industry is currently witnessing a shift in competitive focus; whereas early foldable designs were marketed largely on the novelty of the "fold" itself, Apple’s entry is moving the needle toward multitasking efficiency and practical, day-to-day productivity. By focusing on how a larger, flexible screen can actually improve workflows, Apple is successfully shifting the conversation away from form-factor innovation and toward functional, high-value user experiences.
A Shifting Competitive Landscape
If these projections hold true, the hierarchy of the foldable smartphone market will look significantly different by the end of 2027. While Samsung has long been the pioneer and clear leader in the foldable space, its market dominance is expected to face pressure from Apple’s rapid ascent. TrendForce anticipates that Samsung’s share of the global foldable market will decline from 35.1% in 2026 to 31.9% in 2027.
Similarly, other major players like Huawei are expected to see their market shares contract as the entry of the iPhone Duo reshapes consumer demand. Projections suggest Huawei’s share may drop from 24.8% in 2026 to 21.3% in 2027. This does not necessarily signal a total collapse of the foldable market for these manufacturers; rather, it indicates a redistribution of market share as Apple captures a significant portion of the premium segment.
The entry of Apple is also expected to play a critical role in the maturation of the foldable category as a whole. TrendForce suggests that Apple’s presence will drive future growth through sustained improvements in foldable screen technology and hinge durability. Furthermore, as Apple continues to integrate more advanced AI use cases into its operating system, the demand for devices that can handle complex multitasking and heavy data processing is likely to increase. For many consumers, the iPhone Duo represents the first time that a foldable device has been paired with an ecosystem they are already fully invested in, which is a powerful driver for adoption.
Looking Toward 2027
The rapid uptake of the iPhone Duo is a testament to the pent-up demand for a foldable device that balances experimental technology with the polish and reliability associated with the Apple brand. While it remains to be seen how the competition will respond to this new reality, the current trajectory suggests that Apple is not just a participant in the foldable market, but a significant force capable of dictating its future direction.
Industry observers will be watching closely to see how Apple iterates on the Duo in the coming years. If the company continues to refine its software to better utilize the expanded screen real estate and continues to push the boundaries of what is possible with mobile hardware, the 29.8% market share projection could even prove to be a conservative estimate.
For now, the data from TrendForce suggests a clear conclusion: the foldable smartphone market has officially entered a new phase. With Apple now firmly established in the segment, the focus has shifted from the mere feasibility of folding screens to the broader question of how these devices can redefine the mobile computing experience. As the market grows and evolves, the integration of hardware, software, and artificial intelligence will likely remain the deciding factor in which companies maintain their leadership positions in the years to come.
